The pattern over time was captured by fitting a log-regression model. The prevalence of HIV infection ranged from 12% in 1999 to 49% in 2008. find more The HIV incidence increased from approximately 3.5 cases per 100 person-years in 2001 to 14 per 100 person-years in 2004, with stabilization

thereafter to levels of around 12 cases per 100 person-years. The incidence estimates were comparable for the two methods used. These findings indicate an increase in the prevalence and incidence of HIV infection among women of reproductive age over the 9 years of the analysis, with a plateau in the incidence of infection since 2005. However, the very high figures for both prevalence and incidence highlight the importance of the continuation of the prevention and treatment programmes that already exist, and suggest that implementation of preventive measures is needed in this area. Monitoring of HIV incidence in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa is important for understanding the dynamics of the HIV epidemic and for targeting and evaluating

HIV preventive interventions. Most HIV surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa rely on prevalence data obtained for pregnant women attending routine antenatal clinics (ANCs). This source of information may not accurately reflect HIV incidence trends. While prevalence data are easy to obtain by conducting ad hoc anonymous serological surveys or as secondary results from other studies, direct measurement of incidence can be logistically complex, expensive and time-consuming. Y-27632 manufacturer HIV incidence can be assessed using several methods, including follow-up of HIV-negative subjects in longitudinal studies, laboratory-based incidence testing differentiating recent and long-standing HIV Urease infections, and estimations based on serial prevalence surveys [1–6]. Several approaches have been developed to estimate HIV incidence

from prevalence data: for example, using serial prevalence data obtained from a single source such as the ANC [6], using age-specific prevalence data from one or several surveys combined with mortality rates [4], and using changes in the overall prevalence over time [3]. Some models incorporate mortality or survival models to estimate incidence from several prevalence surveys [1,5,7]. Recently, Hallett et al. validated such a method of estimation of HIV incidence from prevalence data from Zimbabwe by comparing derived incidence estimates with actual measurements [1]. The advantage of this method with respect to longitudinal incidence estimates is that prevalence data are more accessible and easier to obtain. Incidence estimates can then be used to identify and quantify changes in the epidemic earlier and more accurately than when relying only on prevalence data. Mozambique is ranked as having the tenth highest HIV prevalence in the world.